This course will examine a few aspects of the relationship between Probability and Epistemology. In doing so, we will look at the foundations of probability theory, interpretations of probability, arguments for and against probabilism (the view that we ought to have degrees of belief that are probabilities), conditionalization, Bayesian confirmation theory, confirmational holism, and finally, the relationship between degrees of belief and binary beliefs.
Requirements:
Attendance in class and participation in discussion, are required and will affect your grade. There will be one short paper, one medium-length paper, and one longer final paper.
Office hours:
My office hours are Mon 11:00-12:00 and Thur 3:00-4:00, or by appointment, in 228 Goldwin Smith Hall.
Books available at the university bookstore:
Ian Hacking, Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic, Cambridge University Press, 2001 (= Hacking)
This is a tentative schedule/reading list:
Week 1 (1/25) - Introduction to the course/basic logic and venn diagrams
Roush, Tracking Truth - this book tries to spell out knowledge and justification with a truth-tracking Nozick style account but wants to use conditional probabilities for tracking conditions