Philosophy 4300:
Decision Theory
Spring, 2019

Professor Joel Velasco
Office: 265G (Eng/phil building)
Office Hours: M, T, Th 12-1:00 or by appointment

Class meets MWF, 11:00-11:50 (in Phil 164)

All of the boilerplate information such as course policies and the grading scheme can be found on the syllabus. The readings for the course are below.

Syllabus

Required Books:

Choices: An Introduction to Decision Theory by Michael Resnik, University of Minnesota Press, 1987.

All class assignments and any other readings will be found on this website. You should check this website reguarly for updates and bring copies of the assigned readings to class. All readings should be done before the date they are listed here. Come to class on that day prepared to discuss them.

This is a tentative schedule/reading list:

Week 1 -

Wed, 1/16
- Introduction
Fri, 1/18
- Resnik, Ch 1
Extras
- The Art of Decision-Making (New Yorker article interviewing philosophers)

Week 2 - Representing Decisions

Mon, 1/21
- MLK DAY - No class
Wed, 1/23
- Resnik, Ch 2 (sections 2.1 and 2.2)
Fri, 1/25
- no new reading
Extras:

Week 3 - Decisions under Ignorance

Mon, 1/28
- Resnik, Ch 2 (sections 2.2 and 2.3)
Wed, 1/30
Fri, 2/1
- Homework 1 due
- Finish reading chapter 2
Extras:

Week 4 - Decisions under Ignorance

Mon, 2/4
- Finish reading chapter 2
Wed, 2/6
Fri, 2/8
- Still Chapter 2...
Extras:

Week 5 - Decisions under Risk: Probability

Mon, 2/11
- Resnik Chapter 3 (through 3.2 - page 55)
Wed, 2/13
Fri, 2/15
- Homework 2 due
Extras:
- Titelbaum, Foundations of Bayesian Epistemology (chapter 2 - Probability) - on Blackboard

Week 6 - Decisions under Risk: Probability

Mon, 2/18
Wed, 2/20
Fri, 2/22
- through all of section 3.2 (through page 61)
Extras:
- Handout on Monty Hall

Week 7 - Decisions under Risk: Probability

Mon, 2/25
- Chapter 3 - sections 3.3, 3.3a, and 3.3b (through page 68)
Wed, 2/27
- Finish reading Chapter 3
Fri, 3/1
- Joel out of town - no class
Extras:
- Hájek, Interpretations of Probability, Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
- Lots on frequency and propensity interpretations

Week 8 - Decisions under Risk: Probability

Mon, 3/4
- Handout on betting
Wed, 3/6
Fri, 3/8
- Handout on Diachronic Dutch Book argument for conditionalization
- Homework 3 due
Extras:
- Extra readings on Dutch Book arguments
- Titelbaum, Foundations of Bayesian Epistemology (chapter 9 - Dutch Book Arguments) - on Blackboard

Spring Break - March 9-16

Week 9 - Decisions under Risk: Utility

Mon, 3/18
- Resnik Chapter 4 (4.1, 4.2)
Wed, 3/20
- Resnik, 4.3
Fri, 3/22
Extras:
- Titelbaum, Foundations of Bayesian Epistemology (chapter 8 - Representation Theorems) - on Blackboard

Week 10 - Decisions under Risk: Utility (Paradoxes)

Mon, 3/25
- Paper 1 due
- Resnik, 4.4
Wed, 3/27
- Resnik - finish chapter 4
Fri, 3/29
Extras:
- Titelbaum, Foundations of Bayesian Epistemology (chapter 7 - Decision Theory) - on Blackboard

Week 11 - Game Theory

Mon, 4/1
- Resnik chapter 5 - 5.1, 5.2
Wed, 4/3
Fri, 4/5
- Homework 4 due
- Resnik chapter 5.3
Extras:

Week 12 - Game Theory

Mon, 4/8
- Resnik 5.4
- Handout with solution to 3x3 modified R,P,S game
Wed, 4/10
Fri, 4/12
- No class - Joel out of town
Extras:

Week 13 - Game Theory

Mon, 4/15
Wed, 4/17
- Resnik 5-5 Bargaining games
Fri, 4/19
- Homework 5 due
Extras:

Week 14 - Social Choices

Mon, 4/22
- NO CLASS - University Holiday
Wed, 4/24
Fri, 4/26
Extras:

Week 15 - Social Choices

Mon, 4/29
Wed, 5/1
Fri, 5/3
Extras:

Week 16 -

Mon, 5/7
- Homework 6 due
- Last day of class
Extras:

Final Exam scheduled Mon, May 13th 1:30-4:00 pm, we will not have a final, you will have a paper due instead.

Final paper assignment